The Wuhan quarantine was unprecedented—millions of people were told to stay home. Although they were initially skeptical of the approach, officials from the World Health Organization last month said the mass quarantine likely slowed the spread of the virus to other countries, and that other nations should consider adopting such an approach.
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Plus: How can I avoid catching it? Is Covid-19 more deadly than the flu? Our in-house Know-It-Alls answer your questions.But not everyone is convinced. “I have grave doubts about that,” says Lawrence Gostin, director of Georgetown’s World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. Yes, new cases have gone down in China, but they’ve also gone down in South Korea, which didn't lock down whole cities. “So I don’t know if you need those draconian measures,” he says.
These measures have huge repercussions. Industries shut down and the economy slows . In some cases, they may lead to a brutal level of government surveillance and social control. That might be less of a shock in an authoritarian state like China, but could we see such extreme measures in the US as our outbreak grows worse? “I think it’s inconceivable in the United States,” says Gostin. “Americans wouldn't accept the degree of social control that was needed in China, or the intrusive surveillance. We need to be sensible.”
Done incorrectly, quarantines can make things worse: Turning the Grand Princess cruise ship into one giant coronavirus containment facility was a very, very bad idea, as it kept healthy people onboard along with those who had contracted the disease. To do it right, you have to get everyone to port and whisk the sick into isolation and treatment. “Keeping them on the cruise ship couldn’t have been more cruel and ineffective if we were really trying to be cruel and ineffective,” says Gostin.
What the US needs, Gostin argues, is more tests—and fast. He says we should not only be testing those who show symptoms but also randomly testing people to better understand “silent” transmission, which is when people pass the virus along without showing symptoms themselves. Those who test positive for the virus should be isolated and treated in hospitals, and the people who were exposed to them should self-quarantine. “That buys us time,” says Gostin. “Days, weeks matter.”
But a Canadian health monitoring platform had beaten them both to the punch, sending word of the outbreak to its customers on December 31.BlueDot uses an AI-driven algorithm that scours foreign-language news reports, animal and plant disease networks, and official proclamations to give its clients advance warning to avoid danger zones like Wuhan.
To learn more about the tricky science of quarantines, watch our video with Gostin above.WIRED is providing unlimited free access to stories about the coronavirus pandemic . Sign up for our Coronavirus Update to get the latest in your inbox.More From WIRED on Covid-19
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