Forecaster Ben Noll says that if that remains the same, then this year would be the 7th warmest on record for New Zealand,.Mr Noll says a variable January and cooler March this year is what will most likely keep New Zealand out of the top five.
NIWA forecasters say a marine heatwave is forming around parts of New Zealand after sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warmed considerably last month.
And while conditions have improved in most regions, NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll says river flows and soil moisture levels remain below normal for large parts of the North Island and upper South Island while before last weekend drought still persisted in the Coromandel Peninsula.
High waves pounding Wellington’s south coast today are being caused by a deep area of low pressure passing the Chatham Islands, according to NIWA forecaster Ben Noll.Mr Noll said the low was responsible for generating strong winds and large waves between the Chathams and mainland New Zealand.
The New Zealand Drought Index ( ) shows severe meteorological drought is widespread across Northland, Auckland, and northern Waikato.The summer of 2012-13 featured one of the worst droughts in decades for parts of Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, and the western South Island.
NIWA forecaster Ben Noll says much warmer than average temperatures will spill onto the South Island on Saturday, and continue on Sunday and Monday.The heat will peak in the North Island on Sunday and Monday, but above average temperatures are likely to persist for much of the first 10 days of the month.
Called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), it occurs when the temperature of the stratosphere (30-50km above ground) over the South Pole rises by more than 25ᵒC.The Southern Hemisphere is characterised by a cold Antarctic continent surrounded by relatively warm seas.
“During summer, heatwave conditions scorched our seas for the second consecutive year, while several areas of the country suffered ongoing drought conditions, including Nelson-Tasman where prolonged wildfires occurred and a state of emergency was declared,” says NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll.
An abnormal El Niño weather event is looking likely for New Zealand over summer, according to NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll. During summer in a typical El Niño, New Zealand has stronger and/or more frequent winds from the west, leading to an elevated risk of drier-than-normal conditions in the east of both islands and above normal rainfall in the west.